Apath shift in Hurricane Helene could bring a “real problem” to the Tampa, Florida, coastline, a meteorologist has warned as the storm continued strengthening on Wednesday morning.
Helene became a tropical storm on Tuesday morning and is expected to make landfall in Florida’s Big Bend region on Thursday night. As of early Wednesday morning, Helene had maximum sustained wind speeds of 80 mph and was classified as a Category 1 hurricane.
Many meteorologists have warned people outside of the hurricane’s forecasted center to be on alert, as they can cause widespread impact. Also, storm paths can shift, which is what happened during Hurricane Ian’s devastating landfall in late September 2022. Most prior storm path models showed Ian hitting the Tampa area hard and then slowing, but as the storm got closer to landfall, models revealed it would cut east across the state before exiting into the Atlantic Ocean. The storm resulted in a death toll of more than 100.
FOX 13’s chief meteorologist Paul Dellegatto warned of the potential for Helene to shift, which could have a devastating effect on Tampa’s western coastline. Dellegatto wrote on X, formerly Twitter, on Wednesday morning: “It does look like the core of the hurricane (area of strongest winds around the eye) will stay just offshore.
“If by chance the storm shifts a bit to the east, and that core brushes along our coast, then we have a real problem. I do not see that happening right now, but we will keep a close eye on it.”
The storm would have to substantially shift its path, as it is currently forecasted to remain 100 miles off Tampa’s coastline, National Weather Service meteorologist Christianne Pearce told Newsweek.
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Even being offshore, Helene is expected to impact Tampa because of its massive size, bringing storm surge, heavy rain and wind.
“The center of the storm itself is not expected to make landfall along our western coast,” Pearce said. “That would be pretty catastrophic, considering it’s going to be a major hurricane. It would have to be some very significant changes for it make landfall anywhere along our coast.”
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Helene will bring devastation wherever it lands, Pearce said, but noted that the Big Bend area where the storm is anticipated to make landfall is less populated than Tampa.
“Tampa is highly populated with tons of infrastructure,” she said. “Where the worst of winds and surge is going to be, it’s not as populated. Anywhere there are buildings or structures is going to be very bad.”
Helene is anticipated to be a major hurricane—a Category 3 or higher—when it makes landfall. Some meteorologists anticipate it to land as a Category 4, with windspeeds measured between 130 mph and 156 mph. A Category 5 is not out of the question.
Several Florida counties have already issued mandatory evacuations ahead of the storm’s landfall. Many evacuations are in place for healthcare facilities like nursing homes, hospitals and assisted living facilities, as well structures like RV parks and manufactured homes, but some evacuations are in place countywide, such as in Wakulla County.